5 issues published to date. The full editorial record.
With three MPC members already voting to hike, CPI rising to 2.9% and the August print landing the day before the vote, the roughly one-in-ten odds the economist survey implies look badly mispriced.
Futures repriced September within hours, but the more consequential line in the speech — that financial conditions are not restrictive enough — only makes sense if further tightening beyond one move is already in contemplation.
The 30-year touched its highest level since 2007 this week, and the intervention designed to contain it was fully retraced by Thursday — the lasting damage is the retreat from "regular and predictable" issuance, not the yield level itself.
With core CPI at 2.5% and decelerating while payrolls and retail sales crack, a September hike would tighten into demand weakness to fight an energy price set in the Strait of Hormuz.
The UK is in better shape than the commentary suggests, but a Bank forecasting rising inflation does not cut.
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