Healey's First Budget Passes the Gilt Test
The 10-year gilt yield fell to a five-week low after Healey's £4.1 billion relief package, but a 13.6% monthly rise in Brent threatens to erase the gain before it reaches household bills.
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Every issue, indexed.The Archive
13 issues published to date. The full editorial record.
Numbering begins at No. XXI. Issues I–XX were produced before the Brief began publishing and are not part of the public archive.
18min
Read →The Russian diesel tanker bound for New York, and the gap it opens in the West's sanctions wall
A single cargo cannot cool a diesel market squeezed by the war in the Gulf. The waiver that let it sail matters more, for Moscow's revenues and for Europe's hand in the Ukraine talks.
16min
Read →The Strait of Hormuz shock moves from oil into diesel and freight
With exports through the strait down nearly 40% and US diesel at $6.33 a gallon, the Research Brief argues the price will be higher still by the Fed's 28 October decision.
17min
Read →Sefcovic's Beijing trip buys Europe time on rare earths, and only time
China promised to keep approving rare-earth and magnet exports to the EU. Its wider controls are suspended only until November 2026, and the fight over Chinese hybrids could undo the truce.
16min
Read →The 30-year gilt hits 6%, and the G7's oil release can't touch it
The G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels over four months, but the Research Brief argues gilt yields stay at or above 6% until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restored.
13min
Read →The Bank of England's 17 September hold was a mistake
With services inflation unmoved at 3.4%, Brent up 36% and three dissenters including the Chief Economist, the MPC has built a paper trail for November rather than a case for patience.
12min
Read →The Bank of England's 6–3 hold is a policy error in slow motion
With CPI at 3.1%, goods inflation turning, the Ofgem cap rising in October and both the Fed and ECB having tightened within a fortnight, the majority is defending a position the data is actively dismantling.
12min
Read →The Bank of England is about to hold, and that hold will age badly
With Brent above $101, the ECB tightening twice since the Iran war began, and the Fed hiking on Wednesday, a Bank that stands still makes sterling the pressure valve for a shock it cannot absorb through rate policy alone.
12min
Read →The Bank of England's 17 September decision is closer than the consensus admits
With three MPC members already voting to hike, CPI rising to 2.9% and the August print landing the day before the vote, the roughly one-in-ten odds the economist survey implies look badly mispriced.
12min
Read →Kevin Warsh's Fed debut moves a rate hike from the calendar to the destination
Futures repriced September within hours, but the more consequential line in the speech — that financial conditions are not restrictive enough — only makes sense if further tightening beyond one move is already in contemplation.
12min
Read →Bessent's Treasury buyback fails its first test in forty-eight hours
The 30-year touched its highest level since 2007 this week, and the intervention designed to contain it was fully retraced by Thursday — the lasting damage is the retreat from "regular and predictable" issuance, not the yield level itself.
13min
Read →The Fed's hawks are fighting a supply shock the rate tool cannot reach
With core CPI at 2.5% and decelerating while payrolls and retail sales crack, a September hike would tighten into demand weakness to fight an energy price set in the Strait of Hormuz.
12min
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